New Ontario COVID-19 modelling numbers show worsening situations in long-term care homes, hospitals

Ontario health officials unveiled the latest COVID-19 modelling numbers on Thursday, which highlighted the worsening situation in the province’s long-term care homes and hospitals.

As the province grapples with the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic, health officials said the mortality rate of residents in long-term care homes is increasing week over week, with 71 deaths reported in the last seven days alone.

Read more: Ontario reports more than 1,500 new coronavirus cases, breaking another single-day record

There are 93 homes currently experiencing an outbreak for a total of 1,067 confirmed cases: 683 residents and 410 staff, according to government documents released Thursday, t

There have been 196 resident deaths since Aug. 1.

Also highlighted in the documents is the fact that intensive care units will exceed the 150-bed thresh hold available occupancy in Ontario regardless of any modelling scenarios within the next two weeks. It will exceed the 400-bed threshold in a worst-case scenario within six weeks.

The data shows there has been a 61 per cent increase in hospitalized COVID-19 patients over the past three weeks and a 167 per cent increase over six weeks. However, the average patient’s stay in the hospital due to COVID-19 has declined.

Overall, key findings in the modelling numbers suggests the pandemic continues to worsen but “the impact of the pandemic varies widely across regions.”

The modelling warns that Ontario could hit 2,500 cases per day at a three per cent growth and around 6,500 a day at a five per cent growth rate by mid-December.

Health officials said that right now, five per cent growth is an “optimistic scenario.” The province currently has a seven-day growth rate of four per cent.

Last week, Ontario released a new colour-coded system that classifies regions depending on the presence of the virus. Local public health units in hotspots like Toronto and Peel Region have added additional restrictions in an attempt to curb the spread of COVID-19.

Ontario Health Minister Christine Elliott said 472 new cases were recorded in Toronto, 448 in Peel Region, 155 in York Region and 91 in Ottawa, 61 in Durham Region, 58 in Waterloo and 54 in Halton Region on Thursday.

All other public health units in Ontario reported under 50 new cases.

As of Thursday, Ontario reported a total of 88, 209 COVID-19 cases and a death toll of 3,275 people.

Key findings of the new COVID-19 modelling numbers.
Key findings of the new COVID-19 modelling numbers. Government of Ontario

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