Where will Canada’s coronavirus economy go next? Here are 3 possible scenarios

The fiscal “snapshot” of the state of Canada’s finances amid the coronavirus pandemic makes it clear that a high level of economic uncertainty remains.

But officials still outlined several possible scenarios for what could come next for Canada’s economy — and they depend on whether there is a serious second wave of COVID-19 transmission.

Read more: Canada’s coronavirus deficit soaring to $343B as feds warn of ‘permanent change’ to economy

In a news conference with reporters, Finance Minister Bill Morneau said the snapshot included what the federal government knows now and “a sense” of what officials think will occur in the short term, noting that “the ability to forecast is extremely difficult” at this time.

Here are three possible scenarios outlined in the snapshot released on Wednesday:

The main economic outlook

The main economic outlook for Canada contained in the document is based on the average of forecasts provided by private-sector economists in a survey conducted by the federal finance department in the third week of May.

Federal officials are using that as the basis for its fiscal projections for the year ahead.

“While private-sector views are relatively aligned on the magnitude of the second-quarter decline, their third-quarter growth forecasts diverge widely, reflecting tremendous uncertainty around, for example, the pace of rehiring and investment, rebound in consumer activity, etc.,” the snapshot read.

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The average results of the survey showed private-sector economists expect the country’s real GDP to drop 6.8 per cent in 2020 — a contraction expected to be “much worse than experienced during the 2008-2009 financial crisis.”

But the average of the forecasts predicted “a faster rebound in real GDP than in the past three recessions,” positing that real GDP would rebound by 5.5 per cent in 2021.

The unemployment rate — which peaked in the second quarter of 2020 — may remain higher than pre-COVID-19 levels throughout the rest of 2020 and 2021, declining gradually to around seven per cent by the end of 2021, the projections showed.

The results of the survey of the private-sector economists are “most consistent with slow, steady and relatively low levels of ongoing community transmission of the virus,” according to the government’s snapshot.

Read more: Canada reviewing its coronavirus aid to prepare for possible 2nd wave, Trudeau says

A “further resurgence” of the coronavirus in Canada and a second wave of measures to contain it “would severely hamper the economic recovery” — but that resurgence could still be “less economically damaging” than the first wave, the report cautioned.

Citing the “high degree” of uncertainty over how the pandemic will continue to unfold from both public health and economic perspectives and Canadians’ level of caution during that time, the federal government also included two “alternative scenarios” to economists’ projections in its snapshot, which painted more grim outlooks.

The ‘uneven and gradual recovery’ scenario

The first alternative scenario outlined an “uneven and gradual recovery” from the pandemic, assuming a “slower pace of return to normal” of economic activity and “repetitive peaks of viral transmission.”

Under that first scenario, households would continue to avoid most public spaces and activities, while businesses wouldn’t fully rebound amid “stringent containment measures” and would continue to operate below capacity.

Read more: Does the coronavirus pandemic really come in waves? Experts raise doubts

Those “prolonged shutdowns” would result in more permanent, rather than temporary, job losses, resulting in a “more uneven recovery” across the country and a drop in real GDP of 9.6 per cent in 2020.

“With the pace of business resumption still uncertain, it is unknown whether this scenario will come to pass or not, but it illustrates the potential downside risks that could still exist,” the snapshot noted.

The ‘virus resurgence scenario’

The second scenario considers a serious resurgence of COVID-19 with “uncontrolled transmission” and a sharp increase in new cases later in 2020, evolving into a series of smaller waves of transmission next year.

In that scenario, the resurgence would occur at the same time as the annual flu season and force another round of social and economic shutdowns as part of renewed containment measures.

Read more: 2nd coronavirus wave could have ‘serious impact’ on economy, Bank of Canada says

Economic activity would tank again, and while it might be less severe than during the first wave, the economic damage would be “large,” the document said — resulting in re-closed businesses, fresh layoffs and less spending.

“Overall, this translates into a deeper and longer-lasting negative impact on the economy, with a decline of 11.2 per cent in real GDP in 2020 and the level of real GDP remaining below that of even the most pessimistic private-sector forecast by the end of 2021,” the document said of the second alternative scenario.

Morneau told reporters the government intends to release a meatier economic update or budget and its plans for the “path forward” in the fall when officials “have more information.”

© 2020 Global News, a division of Corus Entertainment Inc.

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